Modeli za procjenu potrošnje prirodnog plina

master's thesis

• Title: Modeli za procjenu potrošnje prirodnog plina : diplomski rad
• Title (english): Models for natural gas forecasting : master’s thesis
• Author: Mislav Matić
• Mentor: Luka Perković (mentor)
• Committee member: Luka Perković (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Domagoj Vulin (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Kurevija (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering; (Department of Petroleum and Gas Engineering and energy); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2018-12-14, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mining, Petroleum and Geology Engineering; Petroleum Mining

Abstract

Uredba Komisije (EU) br. 312/2014 o uspostavljanju mrežnih pravila o uravnoteženju plina transportnih sustava propisuje pravila uravnoteženja plinskog sustava u EU te ju je Hrvatska ulaskom u EU dužna implementirati. Što boljim i preciznijim modelima za procjenu potrošnje plina je prognoza točnija te je manja potreba za uravnoteženjem sustava i plaćaju će se manje naknade za odstupanje. U ovom radu prikupljeni su ulazni podaci za izradu modela te su konstruirani modeli pomoću platforme Spyder i programskog jezika Python. Potrošnje dobivene modelima uspoređivane su sa stvarnim potrošnjama te se na temelju toga odredila preciznost i točnost svakog modela.

Abstract (english)

The Commission Regulation (EU) No.312/2014 regarding the establishing a Network Code on Gas Balancing of Transmission Networks has been prescribed the EU and, as such, Croatia is obligated to implement it. Thanks to the increasingly improved accuracy of models for forecasting gas utilization, the need for the balancing of the system is reduced and penalties for deviation are becoming smaller This thesis gathers the input data for the creation of models, which are then created using the Spyder platform and Python programming language. Natural gas consumption calculated using the aforementioned models is then compared to historical gas consumptions and, based on the comparison results, the accuracy and the precision of each model is determined.

• Keywords: prirodni plin; model; prognoza; temperatura; potrošnja plina; koeficijent determinacije
• Keywords (english): natural gas; model; forecast; temperature; natural gas consumption; coefficient of determination
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:169:070642
• Study programme: Title: Petroleum engineering; specializations in: Petroleum engineering, Energy production and supply, Environmental protection in petroleum engineering; Course: Energy production and supply; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka naftnog rudarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka naftnog rudarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2019-02-05 13:16:28