Usporedba metoda procjene vjerojatnosti geološkog uspjeha na primjeru tipskog potencijalnog ležišta u klastitima

master's thesis

• Title: Usporedba metoda procjene vjerojatnosti geološkog uspjeha na primjeru tipskog potencijalnog ležišta u klastitima : diplomski rad
• Title (english): Comparison of methods for assessing the probability of geological success on the example of a typical potential field in clastic reservoir : master's thesis
• Author: Karla Radoević
• Mentor: Iva Kolenković Močilac (mentor)
• Committee member: Iva Kolenković Močilac (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Bruno Saftić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Marko Cvetković (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering; (Department of Mineralogy, Petrology and Mineral Resources); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-02-18, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: NATURAL SCIENCES; Geology

Abstract

Vjerojatnost geološkog uspjeha (engl. Probability of Geological Success – PoS) predstavlja metodu kojom se može procijeniti perspektivnost slabo istraženog dijela bazena ili perspektivnost prospekta. Geološki uspjeh predstavlja način procjene rizika koji se najčešće dobije množenjem nekoliko faktora rizika, a najznačajniji su zamka, kvaliteta ležišta, zrelost matičnih stijene, adekvatan izolator, migracija. U ovom radu objašnjene su dvije metode izračuna PoS-a. Jednu metodu predložio je David A. WHITE, a drugu metodu predložio je Alexei V. MILKOV. Iako obje metoda služe za procjenu geološkog faktora rizika, one se dosta razlikuju, ponajprije u načinu određivanja vrijednosti faktora rizika. Metoda prema WHITE subjektivnija je metoda gdje se vrijednosti procjene rizika dodjeljuju na temelju stručnog, ali subjektivnog mišljenja, dok je metoda prema MILKOVU objektivnija, temelji se na algoritmu, odnosno relativno složenim tablicama pomoću koji se definira vrijednost PoS-a. Dvije metode su testirane na pojednostavljenom potencijalnom tipskom ležištu koje je opisano strukturnom kartom po krovini ležišta. Potencijalno tipsko ležište temelji se na jednome od ležišta polja Stružec, a značajke su mu definirane na temelju značajki pješčenjačkih ležišta Savske depresije opisanih u literaturi. Dobiveni rezultati se razlikuju, ali izračun PoS-a prema obje metode rezultirao bi nastavkom istraživanja, kada bi se radilo o stvarnom prospektu, jer je u oba slučaja vrijednost PoS-a je >0,5, odnosno prema WHITE dobivena vrijednost iznosi 0,72, a prema MILKOV 0,52.

Abstract (english)

The probability of geological success (PoS) is a method which helps to assess the perspectives of a underexplored part of petroleum basin or the perspectives of prospects. Geological success is a way of risk assessment that is most often obtained by multiplying several risk factors, and the most important are the trap, the quality of the reservoir, the maturity of the source rocks, adequate seal, migration. In this paper, two methods of PoS calculation are explained. One method was proposed by David A. WHITE and the other method was proposed by Alexei V. MILKOV. Although both methods are used to estimate the geological risk factor, they are quite different, primarily in the way the risk factors are determined. The method according to WHITE is a more subjective method where the risk assessment values are assigned based on expert, but subjective opinion, while the method according to MILKOV is more objective, based on an algorithm or relatively complex tables that define the value of PoS . The methods were tested on a simplified potential reservoir which is described by a top reservoir structural map. The potential type field is based on one of the reservoirs of the Stružec field, and its characteristics are defined on the basis of the characteristics of the sand deposits of the Sava Depression described in the literature. The results obtained by the two methods differ, but both would result in drilling if it was a real prospect, because the value of PoS is> 0.5, ie according to WHITE the obtained value is 0.72, and according to MILKOV 0.52.

• Keywords: vjerojatnost geološkog uspjeha; faktor rizika; matične stijene; kolektorske stijene; migracija; antiklinala
• Keywords (english): probability of geological success; risk factor; source rocks; reservoir rock; migration; anticline
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:169:300018
• Study programme: Title: Geology; specializations in: Geology of mineral resources and geophysical explorations; Course: Geology of mineral resources and geophysical explorations; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra geologije (magistar/magistra geologije)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-03-08 12:11:28