Landslide susceptibility assessment of the City of Karlovac using the bivariate statistical analysis

Scientific paper - Original scientific paper

• Title (croatian): Procjena podložnosti na klizanje na području grada Karlovca primjenom bivarijantne statističke metode
• Author: Marko Sinčić
• Author: Sanja Bernat Gazibara
• Author: Martin Krkač
• Author: Snježana Mihalić Arbanas
• Author's institution: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering; (Department of Geology and Geological Engineering)
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mining, Petroleum and Geology Engineering

Abstract (english)

A preliminary landslide susceptibility analysis on a regional scale of 1:100 000 using bivariate statistics was conducted for the City of Karlovac. The City administration compiled landslide inventory used in the analysis based on recorded landslides from 2014 to 2019 that caused significant damage to buildings or infrastructures. Analyses included 17 geofactors relevant to landslide occurrence and classified them into four groups: geomorphological (elevation, slope gradient, slope orientation, terrain curvature, terrain roughness), geological (lithology-rock type, proximity to geological contacts, proximity to faults), hydrological (proximity to drainage network, proximity to springs, proximity to temporary, permanent and to all streams, topographic wetness) and anthropogenic (proximity to traffic infrastructure, land cover using two classifications). Five scenarios were defined using a different combination of geofactors weighted by the Weights-of Evidence (WoE) method, resulting in five different landslide susceptibility maps. The best landslide susceptibility map was selected upon the results of a ROC curve analysis, which was used to obtain success and prediction rates of each scenario. The novelty in the presented research is that a limited amount of thematic data and an incomplete landslide inventory map allows for the production of a preliminary landslide susceptibility map for usage in spatial planning. Also, this study provides a discussion regarding the used method, geofactors, defined scenarios and reliability of the results. The final preliminary landslide susceptibility map was derived using ten geofactors, which satisfied the pairwise CI test, and it is classified in four zones: low landslide susceptibility (57.05% of the area), medium landslide susceptibility (20.63% of the area), high landslide susceptibility (13.28% of the area), and very high landslide susceptibility (9.03% of the area), and has a success rate of 94% and a prediction rate of 93% making it a highly accurate source of preliminary information for the study area.

Abstract (croatian)

Za grad Karlovac provedena je preliminarna analiza podložnosti na klizanje u regionalnome mjerilu 1 : 100 000 primjenom bivarijantne statistike. Inventar klizišta koji je korišten u analizama izradila je gradska uprava na temelju zabilježenih klizišta koja su izazvala znatne štete na zgradama ili infrastrukturi u razdoblju od 2014. do 2019. godine. Analize su uključivale 17 geofaktora relevantnih za pojavu klizišta podijeljenih u četiri skupine: geomorfološki (nadmorska visina, nagib terena, orijentacija padine, zakrivljenost terena, hrapavost terena), geološki (litologija, udaljenost od geološke granice, udaljenost od rasjeda), hidrološki (udaljenost od drenažne mreže, udaljenost od izvora, udaljenost od privremenih, stalnih i svih potoka, vlažnost terena) i antropogeni (udaljenost od prometne infrastrukture, namjena zemljišta primjenom dviju klasifikacija). Primjenom metode Weights-of-Evidence (WoE) definirano je pet scenarija, pri čemu su korišteni različiti geofaktori. Rezultati analiza čine pet različitih karata podložnosti na klizanje. Najbolja karta podložnosti na klizanje odabrana je na temelju rezultata analize ROC krivulje, koja je korištena za dobivanje stupnja točnosti i predikcije svakoga scenarija. Doprinos je prikazanoga istraživanja u tome da korištenje ograničenih tematskih karata i nepotpune karte inventara klizišta omogućuje izradu preliminarne karte podložnosti na klizanje za korištenje u prostornome planiranju. Također, ova studija pruža raspravu o korištenoj metodi, geofaktorima, definiranim scenarijima i pouzdanosti rezultata. Konačna preliminarna karta podložnosti na klizanje izrađena je korištenjem deset geofaktora koji su zadovoljili test pairwise CI i klasificirana je u četiri klase: niska podložnost na klizanje (57.05 % površine), srednja podložnost na klizanje (20.63 % površine), visoka podložnost na klizanje (13.28 % površine), vrlo visoka podložnost na klizanje (9.03 % površine), te ima stupanj točnosti od 94 % i stupanj predikcije od 93 %, što je čini vrlo točnim izvorom preliminarnih informacija za područje istraživanja.

• Keywords (english): landslide; susceptibility assessment; zonation; bivariate statistical analysis; City of Karlovac
• Keywords (croatian): klizište; procjena podložnosti; zonacija; bivarijantna statistička analiza; grad Karlovac
• Language: english
• Publication type: Scientific paper - Original scientific paper
• Publication status: Published
• Peer review: Peer review - international
• Publication version: Published version
• Journal title: Rudarsko-geološko-naftni zbornik
• Numbering: vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 149-170
• p-ISSN: 0353-4529
• e-ISSN: 1849-0409
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.17794/rgn.2022.2.13
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:169:000624
• Publication: 2022
• Document URL: https://hrcak.srce.hr/273871
• Type of resource: Text
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2025-04-25 07:20:06