Analiza potrošnje, proizvodnje i uvoza prirodnog plina uz kretanje cijena u EU u prvoj polovici 2020. godine

master's thesis

• Title: Analiza potrošnje, proizvodnje i uvoza prirodnog plina uz kretanje cijena u EU u prvoj polovici 2020. godine : diplomski rad
• Title (english): Analysis of natural gas consumption, production, imports and price trends in EU in the first half of 2020 : master's thesis
• Author: Matej Macan
• Mentor: Daria Karasalihović Sedlar (mentor)
• Committee member: Daria Karasalihović-Sedlar (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Tomislav Kurevija (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Sonja Koščak Kolin (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering; (Department of Petroleum and Gas Engineering and energy); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2021-02-19, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mining, Petroleum and Geology Engineering; Petroleum Mining

Abstract

Nakon što se pojavio u Kini koncem 2019. godine, virus Covid-19 ubrzo se proširio cijelim svijetom te je, zbog pogubnog djelovanja na zdravlje ljudi, uzrokovao globalnu pandemiju. Mnoge države diljem svijeta, s ciljem usporavanja širenja virusa, donijele su stroge epidemiološke mjere ograničavanja kretanja ljudi. Takve mjere posljedično su utjecale na pad gospodarskih aktivnosti, a samim time i na smanjenje korištenja energenata. Shodno tome, povećana ponuda energenata je preplavila tržište uslijed smanjene potražnje. Cijene plina, koji je već prije proglašen tranzicijskim energentom za postizanje ciljeva EU Komisije za klimatski neutralnu Europu do 2050. godine, dosegle su najniže vrijednosti na spot tržištima diljem Europe u 2020. godini. Takve niske cijene plina stvorile su velike gubitke proizvođačima i trgovcima plinom na globalnoj razini. Kapaciteti skladišta plina diljem svijeta bili su maksimalno iskorišteni. S popuštanjem epidemioloških mjera u ljeto 2020. godine u nekim zemljama, moglo se na kratko vrijeme primijetiti povećanje potražnje za plinom i lagano povećanje cijena na spot tržištima. Međutim, to nije bilo dovoljno za dostizanje tržišnih uvjeta koji su bili postojali prije pandemije. Predikcije kretanja cijena plina predviđale su da bi, uz pojavu cjepiva 2021. godine i hladniju zimu 2020./21. koja bi također pridonijela normaliziranju plinskog tržišta s povećanjem potrošnje, moglo doći do povećanja cijena. Kako god,
Europu, kao i ostatak svijeta, očekuje ekonomska recesija čije posljedice, a i sam završetak u ovom trenutku nije moguće predvidjeti. Stoga će EU možda morati revidirati svoje politike u pogledu provođenja odluka EU Green Deal-a. U nadolazećem razdoblju ekonomske krize postavlja se pitanje koliko je ekonomično ulagati u obnovljive izvore energije. Korištenje postojeće plinske infrastrukture moglo bi stoga u narednom razdoblju biti isplativo i maksimalno utilizirano.

Abstract (english)

Starting in China in late 2019 and soon spreading around the world, the virus COVID-19, because of its danger to the health of every human being, caused a global declaration of a pandemic. Many countries around the world have taken strict measures to restrict the spread of the virus in order to slow down the spread of the virus and accordingly to reduce the number of people who have fallen ill and died. Such measures have consequently led to a decline in economic activity, and thus to a reduction in energy use. Therefore, energy supply has abruptly flooded markets due to reduced demand. Gas, as a transitional energy source towards achieving the EU Commission's goals to bring climate-neutral Europe to life by 2050, has never experienced cheaper prices in spot markets across Europe in 2020. Such low gas prices have created large operating losses for gas producers and traders globally. Gas storage facilities around the world had never been filled. By releasing the measures last summer in some countries, an increase in gas demand could be noticed for a short time and, consequently, a slight increase in prices on spot markets, but not enough to reach market conditions before the pandemic. Many gas experts expect, with the advent of the vaccine in 2021, a colder winter in 2020/21. which would also contribute to the normalization of the gas market with an increase in consumption and thus an increase in the prices of this energy source. However, Europe and the rest of the world expect the economic recession whose effects and completion cannot be defined at this time. Therefore, the EU will need to review its policies regarding the implementation of EU Green Deal decisions. In the coming period, accompanied by the economic crisis, the question arises whether it is acceptable to invest significant financial resources in investing in technologies and renewable energy plants. The use of the existing gas infrastructure could therefore be profitable and maximally utilized in the coming period.

• Keywords: COVID-19; pandemija; potražnja plina; cijena plina; proizvodnja plina
• Keywords (english): COVID-19; pandemic; gas demand; gas price; gas production
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:169:761878
• Study programme: Title: Petroleum engineering; specializations in: Petroleum engineering, Energy production and supply, Environmental protection in petroleum engineering; Course: Energy production and supply; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka naftnog rudarstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka naftnog rudarstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-03-23 10:50:04