Metode zoniranja podložnosti na klizanje na primjeru pilot područja u Hrvatskom zagorju

master's thesis

• Title: Metode zoniranja podložnosti na klizanje na primjeru pilot područja u Hrvatskom zagorju : diplomski rad
• Title (english): Methods of landslide susceptibility zonation : a case study from Hrvatsko zagorje (Croatia) : master's thesis
• Author: Iva Štefičar
• Mentor: Sanja Bernat Gazibara (mentor)
• Mentor: Marko Sinčić (pomoć pri izradi, neposredni voditelj)
• Committee member: Sanja Bernat Gazibara (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Snježana Mihalić Arbanas (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Martin Krkač (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Mining, Geology and Petroleum Engineering; (Department of Geology and Geological Engineering); Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2024-02-22, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Mining, Petroleum and Geology Engineering; Geological Engineering

Abstract

Cilj ovog rada bio je analizirati metode zoniranja podložnosti na klizanje u krupnom mjerilu te predložiti najoptimalniju metodu za izradu karte podložnosti na klizanje na pilot područja u Hrvatskom zagorju. Korištena je karta podložnosti na klizanje za pilot područje u Općini Bednja i Gradu Lepoglavi (20 km2), a izrađena u sklopu projekta LandSlidePlan (HRZZ IP-2019-04-9900) metodom slučajnih šuma. Ukupno je pripremljeno devet scenarija, od kojih je šest metoda integrirano u ArcMap 10.1, a još tri scenarija su definirana s obzirom na subjektivno određene kumulativne udjele klizišta na ROC krivulji. Za analizu najpovoljnijih metoda zoniranja, izračunati su udjeli klasa podložnosti u ukupnoj površini pilot područja te udjeli klizišta u svakoj klasi podložnosti. Prilikom definiranja predmetne prostorne analize odlučeno je da će se sve karte podložnosti na klizanje klasificirati u pet klasa podložnosti. Osnovna hipoteza pri odabiru najoptimalnije metode zoniranja je da ima što veći udio klizišta u klasama visoke i vrlo visoke podložnosti na klizanje te da te klase imaju što manje udjele u površinama. Pri tome, analizirano je koliki utjecaj metoda zoniranja podložnosti na klizanje ima na prostorno planirane površine i odgovorno upravljanje prostorom jer se očekuje da će se sa promjenom metode zoniranja mijenjati i udjeli duljina prometnica, broja građevina i površina građevinskih područja u navedenim zonama. Scenarij S9, odnosno metoda definirana s obzirom na kumulativne granične vrijednosti ROC krivulje (60–20– 10 –7–3%) pokazala se kao najoptimalnija metoda za zoniranje karte podložnosti na klizanje pilot područja. Također, scenarij 9 sadrži najmanje udjele prometnica, građevina i građevinskih područja od svih analiziranih metoda zoniranja podložnosti na klizanje No, iz dobivenih rezultata može se zaključiti i da na predmetnom pilot području postoji značajan broj građevina (338), prometnica (40,40 km) i općenito građevinskih područja (20,57% ) na pilot području koja su direktno ugrožena postojećim klizištima, ali i izložena visokoj vjerojatnosti pojave klizišta u budućnosti.

Abstract (english)

The aim of this paper was to analyze the methods of landslide susceptibility zonation and to propose the most optimal method for zoning a landslide susceptibility map on the pilot area in Hrvatsko Zagorje. A landslide susceptibility map was used for the pilot area in the Municipality of Bednja and the City of Lepoglava, made as part of the LandSlidePlan project (HRZZ IP-2019-04-9900) using the Random Forest method. A total of nine scenarios were prepared, six methods were integrated into ArcMap 10.1, and three more scenarios were defined with respect to subjectively determined cumulative landslide proportions on the ROC curve. For the analysis of the most favourable zoning methods, the proportions of susceptibility classes in the total area of the pilot area and the shares of landslides in each class of susceptibility were calculated. When defining the subject spatial analysis, it was decided that all landslide susceptibility maps would be classified into five susceptibility classes. The basic hypothesis when choosing the most optimal zoning method is that it has as high a share of landslides as possible in classes of high and very high susceptibility and that these classes have as few shares in surfaces as possible. In doing so, it was analyzed how much impact this has on spatially planned areas and responsible surface management because it is expected that with the change of zoning method, the shares of road lengths, the number of buildings and surfaces of construction areas in these zones will change. Scenario S9, i.e. the method defined with respect to cumulative ROC curve limit values (60–20–10–7–3%), proved to be the most optimal method for zoning the pilot area susceptibility map. Also, Scenario 9 contains the smallest proportions of roads, structures and construction areas. However, from the obtained results, it can be concluded that in the pilot area in question, there is a significant number of buildings (338), roads (40,40 km) and generally construction areas (20,57%) that are directly threatened by existing landslides, but also exposed to a high probability of landslides in the future.

• Keywords: klizište; zoniranje podložnosti; Hrvatsko zagorje
• Keywords (english): landslide; susceptibility zonation; Hrvatsko Zagorje region
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:169:624953
• Project: Number: IP-2019-04-9900; Title: Razvoj metodologije procjene podložnosti na klizanje za planiranje namjene zemljišta primjenom LiDAR tehnologije; Title: Methodology development for landslide susceptibility assessment for land-use planning based on LiDAR technology; Acronym: LandSlidePlan; Leader: Snježana Mihalić Arbanas; Jurisdiction: Croatia; Funder: Hrvatska zaklada za znanost; Funding stream: Research Projects
• Study programme: Title: Geological engineering; specializations in: Hydrogeology and engineering geology, Environmental geology; Course: Hydrogeology and engineering geology; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka geološkog inženjerstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka geološkog inženjerstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2025-04-16 08:17:49