Title Regionalna hidrološka analiza krškog porječja Kupe : doktorski rad Title (english) Regional hydrological analysis of the Kupa karstic basin : doctoral thesis Author Krešimir Pavlić Mentor Ranko Žugaj (mentor)Mentor Jelena Parlov (mentor)Committee member Andrea Bačani (predsjednik povjerenstva)Committee member Ranko Žugaj (član povjerenstva)Committee member Jelena Parlov (član povjerenstva)Committee member Nevenka Ožanić (član povjerenstva)Committee member Željko Andreić (član povjerenstva)Granter University of Zagreb Defense date and country 2016-05-18, Croatia Scientific / art field, TECHNICAL SCIENCES Universal decimal classificationUDC ) 55 - Geology. Meteorology. Hydrology Abstract Regionalna hidrološka analiza provedena je na osnovi podataka s hidrometrijskih profila koji
se nalaze na području krškog sliva Kupe. Obrađeni su podaci s 32 hidrološka profila na 20 vodotoka
do profila: Kamanje na Kupi, Stative Donje na Dobri, Mrzlo polje na Mrežnici i Veljun na Korani,
a ukupna površina obrađenih slivova iznosi oko 5.450 km2. Obrađeni hidrološki podaci su srednji
dnevni protoci te srednji, maksimalni i minimalni godišnji protoci. Osim hidroloških podataka,
obrađeni su i podaci o dnevnim oborinama prikupljenim na klimatološkim stanicama Parg, Ogulin
i Karlovac. Razdoblje obrade je (1981.-2012.), a dobiveni rezultati su uspoređeni s rezultatima
ranijih istraživanja u kojima je analizirano razdoblje (1951.-1980).
Usporedba trendova srednjih godišnjih protoka, kojom se ujedno opravdava usvojeno razdoblje
obrade, pokazala je da je u ranijem razdoblju (1951.-1980.) osam nizova imalo opadajući trend, a
11 nizova rastući, dok je u razdoblju ove obrade (1981.-2012.) 20 nizova imalo opadajući trend a
12 nizova rastući trend. Maksimalni godišnji protoci su u ranijem razdoblju imali sedam nizova
opadajućeg trenda a 12 nizova rastućeg trenda, dok je u razdoblju ove obrade 27 nizova imalo
opadajući trend a pet nizova rastući trend. Minimalni godišnji protoci u ranijem razdoblju obrade
su imali sedam nizova opadajućeg trenda i 12 nizova rastućeg trenda, a u razdoblju ove obrade je
15 nizova imalo opadajući trend, a 17 nizova rastući trend. Analiza homogenosti srednjih,
maksimalnih i minimalnih godišnjih protoka razdoblja obrade (1981.-2012.) u odnosu na razdoblje
(1951.-1980.) pokazala je da je najviše nehomogenih nizova kod srednjih godišnjih protoka dok je
kod maksimalnih i minimalnih godišnjih protoka većina nizova homogena. Nehomogenost nizova
srednjih godišnjih protoka potvrđuje pretpostavku o sušnijem razdoblju koje je nastupilo početkom
80-ih godina prošlog stoljeća, i traje sve do danas.
U ovoj regionalnoj hidrološkoj analizi izvedeno je 10 dvoparametarskih zakonitosti veza
karakterističnih parametara srednjih godišnjih protoka, 72 dvoparametarskih zakonitosti veza
karakterističnih parametara maksimalnih godišnjih protoka, zajedno s parametrima maksimalnih
protoka i volumena različitih povratnih razdoblja i 10 dvoparametarskih zakonitosti veza
karakterističnih parametara minimalnih godišnjih protoka. Definirani su i teorijski hidrogrami
10-, 100- i 1000-godišnjeg povratnog razdoblja duž toka Kupe. Izdvojene su zakonitosti veza koje
se mogu preporučiti za primjenu u praksi. Analiza višeparametarskih zakonitosti veza dala je dvije
moguće troparametarske zakonitosti, međutim one nisu preporučljive za upotrebu zbog vrlo širokih
intervala pouzdanosti, iako imaju visoke vrijednosti koeficijenta korelacije. Spektralna analiza
protoka i oborina pokazala je da su se u razdoblju istraživanja (1981.-2012.) ekstremi protoka i
oborina pojačali i više istaknuli, ali da se ukupna količina oborine i protoka smanjila u odnosu na
ranije razdoblje (1951.-1980.).
Ključne riječi: regionalna hidrološka analiza, spektralna analiza, protok, oborina, krš, sliv Kupe.
Abstract (english) Regional hydrological analysis was conducted using data from the catchments located in the
area of karst basin of the Kupa river. The study included data from 32 hydrological profiles on 20
watercourses down to Kamanje on Kupa, Stative Donje on Dobra, Mrzlo polje on Mrežnica and
Veljun on Korana profiles. Catchment area to specified profiles is approximately 5450 km2. The
processed hydrological data are the average daily flows and the average, maximum and minimum
annual flows. In addition to hydrological data, the daily rainfall data collected on climatological
stations Parg, Ogulin and Karlovac were processed. The period of analysis is from 1981 to 2012,
and the results were compared with the results of previous studies that analyzed the period from
1951 to 1980.
The comparison of trends in mean annual flows, which also justifies the chosen period of
analysis, has shown that in the earlier period from 1951 to 1980 eight time-sets showed a declining
trend, and 11 time-sets showed growing trend, while in the analyzed period from 1981 to 2012, 20
time-sets showed a declining trend, and 12 time-sets showed growing trend. The maximum annual
flows in the earlier period consisted of seven time-sets showing a declining trend and 12 time-sets
showing the growing trend, while in the period of this analysis 27 time-sets showed a declining
trend and five time-sets showed a growing trend. The minimum annual flows in the earlier period
analysis consisted of seven time-sets showing a declining trend and 12 time-sets showing the
growing trend, and in the period of this analysis, 15 time-sets have shown a declining trend, and
17 time-sets have shown a growing trend. The analysis of homogeneity of average, maximum and
minimum annual flow for the 1981 to 2012 period in relation to the 1951 to 1980 period, shows
that majority of non-homogeneous time-sets were present with average annual flows, while the
majority of time-sets of maximum and minimum annual flows were homogeneous. The
homogeneity of average annual flows confirms the assumption of a drier period, which occurred
in the early 1980s and continues to this day.
In this regional hydrological analysis, the following was conducted: 10 two-parameter models’
relationships of the average annual flow characteristic parameters, 72 two-parameter models’
relationships of the maximum annual flow characteristic parameters, together with the parameters
of the maximum flow rate and the volume of different return periods and 10 two-parameter models’ relationships of the minimum annual flow characteristic parameters. Theoretical hydrographs of
10-, 100- and 1000-year return period along the Kupa river flow were defined. Two-parameters’
models that can be used in practice were selected. Although the analysis of multi-parameter
relationships produced two possible three-parameter relationships, they are not recommended for
use because of the very wide confidence interval, regardless of the correlation coefficient high
value. Spectral analysis of the flows and precipitation shows that during the period of analysis from
1981 to 2012, extremes of flows and precipitation were strengthened and more pointed out, but the
total amount of precipitation and flows declined, compared to the previous period from 1951 to
1980.
Keywords
regionalna hidrološka analiza
spektralna analiza
protok
oborina
krš
sliv Kupe.
Keywords (english)
regional hydrologic analysis
spectral analysis
flows
precipitation
karst
Kupa basin.
Language croatian URN:NBN urn:nbn:hr:169:193796 Promotion 2016-09-25 Study programme Title: Applied Geosciences, Mining and Petroleum Engineering Catalog URL http://katalog.nsk.hr/F/?func=direct&CON_LNG=ZAG&local_base=ZAG01_WEB&doc_number=000614507 Type of resource Text Extent 143 str. ; 30 cm File origin Born digital Access conditions Open access Terms of use Created on 2017-11-21 13:38:48
